Lottery ROI Calculator
Some things to note off the bat:
- I can essentially guarantee you will never win the lottery. You have a 99.9999997% chance to lose.
- You don't actually get the advertised jackpot amount. You can get that amount spread out over the next 30 years or ~52% of that amount upfront. Which is better depends on your age and investment strategy.
- You have to pay taxes on your winnings, which will be essentially a flat 37% federally plus whatever state taxes you have.
- As you will soon see, it's a horrible investment strategy.
- If you have a gambling problem, get help.
With that out of the way, let's get down to the math.
Powerball
Currently the next Powerball Jackpot amount is $20,000,000. Taking the lump sum, you would get $10,800,000, less the $3,958,900 of federal taxes.
With 20,000,000 players…
…playing for the remaining $6,841,100…
…you would have an average ROI of 33% (including lesser prizes).
If only one person won, you would have an ROI of 33%. However this must be reduced because you would have a 7% chance of sharing the jackpot with another winner.
Mega Millions
Currently the next Mega Millions Jackpot amount is $50,000,000. Taking the lump sum, you would get $26,400,000, less the $9,730,900 of federal taxes.
With 19,000,000 players…
…playing for the remaining $16,669,100…
…you would have an average ROI of 27% (including lesser prizes).
If only one person won, you would have an ROI of 27%. However this must be reduced because you would have a 6% chance of sharing the jackpot with another winner.
