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Lottery ROI Calculator

Some things to note off the bat:

With that out of the way, let's get down to the math.

Powerball

Currently the next Powerball Jackpot amount is $115,000,000. Taking the lump sum, you would get $53,100,000, less the $19,609,000 of federal taxes.

With 17,000,000 players…

…playing for the remaining $33,491,000…

…you would have an average ROI of 35% (including lesser prizes).

If only one person won, you would have an ROI of 35%. However this must be reduced because you would have a 6% chance of sharing the jackpot with another winner.

Mega Millions

Currently the next Mega Millions Jackpot amount is $202,000,000. Taking the lump sum, you would get $91,300,000, less the $33,743,000 of federal taxes.

With 24,000,000 players…

…playing for the remaining $57,557,000…

…you would have an average ROI of 31% (including lesser prizes).

If only one person won, you would have an ROI of 32%. However this must be reduced because you would have a 8% chance of sharing the jackpot with another winner.

Illinois Lotto

Illinois makes it very difficult to access data about its lottery and much of the specifics are not clearly disclosed. As best as I can figure though, the ROI goes from about 50% at the lowest jackpot of $2,000,000 up to about 71% at the highest jackpots of $20,000,000. Extra Shot seems to improve these ROIs by about another 20%.

The Illinois Lotto is essentially always a loss. Its floor is higher than national lotteries, but it wouldn't attain a ROI over 1.0 until roughly $45,000,000, which is almost three times as high as the jackpot has ever gotten.